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Post 0

Wednesday, August 31 - 7:09pm

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(Disclaimer: We all hope that Clarence Hardy's family is well, of course.)

If this were the first time in recorded history -- or the last 100 years, or even the last generation -- that a hurricane struck, it would be a matter for humanitarian concern. The objective fact is that there is nothing surprising about this. Some storms are stronger than others.

Last winter (2003-2004), we lived in Traverse City, Michigan. They had the heaviest snows in 30 years. We bought a roof rake to pull the load off our home. But roof rakes exist and are sold for just that reason. When we could not travel, we stayed in. When the power failed, we put on sweaters and set a limit for how cold we would let the house get before we went where the power was. We did not get a visit from the President of the United States because heavy or light, it snows every winter in Traverse City, with temperatures ranging to 10 below C or F, take your pick -- and has done so since for as long as anyone (including the Chippewas) can remember. So, too, with hurricanes.

"For example, the Texas Seed Bill of 1887, a measure to distribute $10,000 to help farmers in drought-stricken Texas, was vetoed by President Grover Cleveland. Why veto so small a sum for so good a cause? Cleveland justified his action stating: "A prevalent tendency to disregard the (government's) limited mission . . . should be steadfastly resisted to (enforce the lesson) that, though the people support the Government, the Government should not support the people."
http://www.free-eco.org/articleDisplay.php?id=290

There are few places on Earth that are Edens. Costa Rica comes close. Some other places are nice. Earth has a "ring of fire" known for earthquakes, volcanoes, and tidal waves. Typhoons and hurricanes are regular events. Blizzards are expectable. Even droughts happen with regularity and our accumulated common knowledge warns us of that.

USA: August 12, 2002
KANSAS CITY, Mo. - They were praying for rain at the St. Patrick parish church in Grand Rapids, Ohio this week.

With hands clasped and eyes cast downward, about 100 desperate farmers and rural residents gathered at the church on Wednesday to seek divine intervention in an extended drought in Ohio and much of the United States that is fast becoming one of the worst in the last century.
In a typical year, drought hits 10 percent to 12 percent of the country.
http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/17252/story.htm

Do this: enter <YOUR HOME TOWN> WORST DROUGHT IN HISTORY in Google. Then do that for Worst Snowstorm, Worst Flood, Worst Forest Fire, or, heck, Worst Plague of Frogs. You will see that these worst events are alarmingly common.

It is pretty funny -- OK, it is not -- but, do you remember Y2K? Remember how geeked we were for disaster planning? Well, right after Y2K, January 24, 2000, a "surprise snowstorm" hit the Middle Atlantic States. No one was "prepared" for it. Admittedly, a huge snow storm may be an unexpected event in North Carolina. But why did those people not just power up their survival generators?

The people of New Orleans had plenty of warning. Even putting aside the centuries and decades, they had 24 hours, minimum, to get out of harm's way. Twenty four hours on a freeway is 16 hours of driving at 50 mph, or 800 miles between you and Hurricane Elsinore. Draw an arc -- and then draw a conclusion.

Post 1

Wednesday, August 31 - 8:20pm

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When the ARI came out with their Tsunami piece while the wave was still settling back to sea, I and Barbara, and some others argued that it was foolish�no one is open to hearing �We owe victims nothing� while the victims are still be counted.

Clarence, as I recall, said he loved their piece, said it was the perfect time for that message. (The ARI retracted it, or re-wrote it, or apologized, I forget.)

Michael�s piece here is the same. It�s true, true, true. But not the time. I hope Clarence and others now grasp what we were trying to say back then.

Jon

Post 2

Wednesday, August 31 - 8:25pm

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And... US Gov, please do not give my money to people who chose to invest in a disaster bound location. Its my money, I worked hard for it. If I choose to spend what I earned on these people, then let me be free to do it. Please, please, do not force me to fund their recovery.

Post 3

Wednesday, August 31 - 9:54pm

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Michael Marotta:

"The people of New Orleans had plenty of warning. Even putting aside the centuries and decades, they had 24 hours, minimum, to get out of harm's way. Twenty four hours on a freeway is 16 hours of driving at 50 mph, or 800 miles between you and Hurricane Elsinore. Draw an arc -- and then draw a conclusion."

And then give a few moments thought to queuing theory and ask yourself what will happen if, at the beginning of the same 24-hour period, half a million people simultaneously get on the same road. How many of them will be able to average 50 mph? None, do you say? Very good!

JR

Post 4

Wednesday, August 31 - 10:51pm

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Honestly, Michael. Before you go so quickly public with something like this, you have *got* to make sure it's devoid of any screaming inanities. Be sensitive enough to the trauma-stricken to spare them of that, at least.

And I do hope, for the sake of your wife, that you have an easier time with women's names than is indicated here. Exactly what is the Freudian explanation behind ELSINORE??!!

A little care, Michael. For crying out loud!

Alec

Post 5

Wednesday, August 31 - 11:16pm

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Ho, boy. Who built the levies in the first place? A terrible disaster and "Objectivists" put out this crap!

That's one more reason I call myself a "realist" these days. I live in the real world and don't have to explain why I'm not "that kind of a person!"

--Brant

Post 6

Thursday, September 1 - 3:47am

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Jeff, everyone does not have to take the same road. That is why I said, draw an arc. Also, they do not all have to leave in the first 24 hours, like race horses out of the gate. Some will leave sooner -- for instance at the start of hurricane season. Others would leave when the hurricane entered the Gulf. That, however, does not address the problem I wrote about. It is hurricane season. It happens every year.

Unlike the Ayn Rand Institute, I did not send out a press release. I speak only for myself. Other SOLOists disagree. Perhaps a "free market solution" would be in order. Can anyone think of ways to profit from avoiding, mitigating, or deleting these events -- or turning them into benefits (aside from the benefit of price gouging). Hurricanes are energy fields. We are in an oil crisis. It seems to me to be an opportunity. Of course, the opportunity has existed for many, many years.

I notice that no one here mentions the poor. It occured to me as I was writing the post. It is nice to say, "Get out of town." What if you cannot? While working on a computer project in Cleveland, I lived without a car for a year. Cleveland has a great public transit system and when I wanted a car, I took a Rapid out to the Airport and rented one. If Lake Erie had risen over its shoreline -- and I was right on the Lake at Lake & Cove in Lakewood -- I would have been a runner, not a driver. So, the problem of the poor remains. Objectivists do not always perceive the special problems of poverty.

I am not insensitive to the people who are affected. My daughter chose to move to Miami Beach. We go through this every year. However, she realizes that this is her choice and she accepts (intellectually) the consequences that she cannot imagine when the Next Big One rips up her neighborhood. Getting killed by flying glass would only be bad for an instant. Dying of cholera would take longer. But you know, what? We all make choices.

Post 7

Thursday, September 1 - 6:10am

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Brant Gaede,

Oh yes, and Galt help those people! Now listen, its my money, not yours. I made it through my own hard work. What claim do you have of it?

Post 8

Thursday, September 1 - 9:31am

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I have no claim on your money. Which government relief effort should we demand be stopped first?

--Brant

(Edited by Brant Gaede on 9/01, 1:31pm)

Post 9

Thursday, September 1 - 11:35am

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Well, at least in all this disaster we get to see another spectacular example of why anarcho-anything doesnt work. Still waiting for the sprawling progressive land of freedom to pour out of this chaotic disaster, or for that anarcho-xxxers to think a little harder about thier positions.

Michael F Dickey

Post 10

Thursday, September 1 - 11:52am

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"Well, at least in all this disaster we get to see another spectacular example of why anarcho-anything doesnt work. Still waiting for the sprawling progressive land of freedom to pour out of this chaotic disaster, or for that anarcho-xxxers to think a little harder about thier positions."

On the other hand, government is doing a brilliant job of dealing with the tragedy.

JR

Post 11

Thursday, September 1 - 12:05pm

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Free-market anarchism is an effect, a result. It is not a cause.

"I heartily accept the motto 'That government is best which governs least' and I should like to see it acted up to more rapidly and systematically. Carried out, it finally amounts to this, which also I believe 'That government is best which governs not at all' and when men are prepared for it, that will be the kind of government which they will have." — Henry David Thoreau

Note the emphasized text.

Post 12

Thursday, September 1 - 12:31pm

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The storm itself was just another hurricane. The aftermath, however, is absolutely unprecedented. I can't even believe what's going on there!!! An area of the United States looks like a third world country on a bad day!! There does not appear to be an end in sight. Only because of the things-will-never-be-the-same aspect of 9-11 do I regard that as an ultimately more significant event occuring in my lifetime (on American soil, anyhow), but I fear that when it's all added up, the human and economic costs of this will make 9-11 pale in comparison. I am simply blown away.

Post 13

Thursday, September 1 - 1:05pm

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Michael,

I notice that no one here mentions the poor. It occured to me as I was writing the post. It is nice to say, "Get out of town." What if you cannot?

I am not heartless, but I must point out this. Not having a fortune doesn't mean having no friends. If you have so isolated yourself from others that you cannot even catch a ride out of town ahead of a hurricane, you have probably made some big choices in life that haven't served you well.

It isn't bad luck that gets us in the fixes we find ourselves. It's our very own bad choices.

Andy

Post 14

Thursday, September 1 - 2:55pm

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On the subject of getting out of town, here's an interesting dose of (what appears to be) reality that was posted in the comments on www.marginalrevolution.com (the blog of economists Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok):

I live in So Florida and we get alot of hurricanes. The decision to leave is more difficult than you think, and policy doesn't have a whole lot to do with it.

First, you have to decide to leave, and you have a small window of opportunity because storm predictions greater than 24-48 hours in scope are notoriously unreliable.

Second, you have to leave. You have to book a flight - along with lots of other people trying to leave - and there may not be an available flight because of timing, overbooking, or the cost is simply prohibitive.

Alternatively, you can drive. But to where? Alot of people in Miami drove south to avoid Andrew and got nailed. Alot of people drove north to avoid Frances - and got hit.

To drive out of harms way from So. Florida - which you'd only do if you KNEW a major storm was hitting you within 24-48 hours - is to drive north with your family (not only the wife and kids mind you, but in-laws, parents and people you don't even remember) along with millions of other people and their relatives all the way to . . . where exactly? The whole southeastern US is a potential stike probability and you don't know where it's going to strike.

Third, you have to book a hotel. Where?

Post 15

Thursday, September 1 - 5:00pm

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"Well, at least in all this disaster we get to see another spectacular example of why anarcho-anything doesnt work. Still waiting for the sprawling progressive land of freedom to pour out of this chaotic disaster, or for that anarcho-xxxers to think a little harder about thier positions."

On the other hand, government is doing a brilliant job of dealing with the tragedy.

JR

Good point, what the hell is going down there? Where is the damn national guard? Where are the international aide organizations? The heads of the management of FEMA should role, and the governers of all the neighboring states. what they hell is going on? Armed gangs shooting at helicoptors? dead bodies floating around? no food no drinking water? This is absolutely absurd.

Post 16

Thursday, September 1 - 5:57pm

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"Where is the damn national guard?"

In Iraq, "defending" us against a tinpot dictator in a Third World latrine who never had the capacity to pose the slightest danger to us.

JR

Post 17

Thursday, September 1 - 6:12pm

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Personally, I think that this hand-wringing is hypocritical.
No one seemed to care that much about these disasters.

Posted 9/20/2004 9:57 PM Updated 9/24/2004 10:42 PM
Jeanne's death toll in Haiti may reach 2,000
GONAIVES, Haiti (AP) � Workers dug new mass graves for corpses that still littered this flood-ravaged city Thursday as the death toll from Tropical Storm Jeanne rose to more than 1,070 and residents grew increasingly agitated from a lack of food and drinkable water.

Storm death toll rises to 622 in Haiti
(Agencies)
Updated: 2004-09-21 14:09
The death toll from a tropical storm that devastated parts of Haiti rose to 622 late Monday as search crews recovered hundreds of bodies carried away by raging weekend floods or buried by mud or the ruins of their homes, officials said.

DISASTERS from Wikipedia
Extreme weather
35,000 - European Heat Wave of 2003 (Europe, 2003)
15,000 - torrential rains and mudslides in Venezuela (1999)
4,000 - heat waves in Texas, Middle East and India (1998)
739 - Chicago Heat Wave of 1995 (Chicago, 1995)
669 - heavy storms ("Winnie") (and 695 missing), (Philippines, 2004)
271 - heat waves in Midwest and Northeast (1999)
Hurricane and cyclone
138,000 - 1991 Bangladesh cyclone, (Chittagong Bangladesh, 1991)
18,277 - Hurricane Mitch (Central America 1998)
10,000 - cyclone in Orissa, India (1999)
9,574 - cyclone (India, 1999)
6,000 - Typhoon Thelma (Philippines, 1991)
3,037 - Hurricane Jeanne, (Haiti, 2004)
1,145 - Hurricane Gordon (Haiti, U.S., 1994)
1,000 - cyclone (India, 1998)

Post 18

Thursday, September 1 - 6:24pm

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"Personally, I think that this hand-wringing is hypocritical. No one seemed to care that much about these disasters."

Two or three of the disasters Michael lists took place in the United States, and I recall seeing major coverage in the papers on all of them. But most of them took place in various Third World toilets, where conditions are so primitive that *any* earthquake, *any* storm becomes a major disaster. Build your towers out of styrofoam and they come down pretty easily. If no one in America seemed to care that much about what happened in those places, why is this surprising? Why should people in America waste their time wringing their hands over events half a world away -- events that have few or no implications for them? Why shouldn't they invest their concern in problems closer to home and more likely to affect them?

JR

Post 19

Thursday, September 1 - 7:31pm

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Michael, it sounds you really underestimate how easy it is to evacuate a city. It seems to me that:

- There aren't that many roads out of any town, and fewer out of a city surrounded by water. Rush hour traffic on any regular day can bring most urban roadways to a crawl, and that is far less 100% of the population traveling in all the same direction with no one exiting the roadway for at least 50-100 miles.

- Everyone leaves at once because they don't know until the last minute if they need to. Not everyone can take off work, pack up their belongings, board up their house and leave for 2-3 days before every potential hurricane hits. Until 1-2 days before, you don't know how close it will be. Last season many in New Orleans boarded up and left for a hurricane that hit the Florida panhandle instead and brought only a thunderstorm to New Orleans. You can't go running off a week in advanced every time a system develops in the gulf.

- In many situations short of complete devastation of your area, heading out leaves you open to looters. As you wait and wonder if it will hit, you also weigh the risk of leaving yourself open to scum of the earth looters if you're too cautious.

- Mass transit isn't capable of evacuating such a large number of people in such a short amount of time. Who makes the decision to disrupt existing schedules to re-route buses? Who answers for it if the storm turns out to cause little damage? Transportations services were available in New Orleans, but if everyone in the city had tried to use them it would not have been enough.

You are right that given proper notice (as the people there were) everyone - poor or not - should have been able to evacuate. But for the above reasons, that just isn't realistic. It didn't happen. Now people are in a pretty awful situation. Looters appear to have control of a city and are doing a good job of driving off police and national guard. This storm didn't just destroy a beachside vacation homes, or devastate a few isolated, sparely populated communities. An entire major city is paralyzed and almost entirely destroyed. Of course there is an overwhelming humanitarian response! To say that they should have known better trivializes things. To imply that for that reason, we who are not personally impacted shouldn't care is heartless.

You haven't convinced me that I shouldn't concerned for what's happening down there. I'm still sad for those suffering under those conditions. I'm still shocked that looters have been allowed to take control and little has been done to stop them. I'm still concerned at the impact this disaster will have on our economy.

Another Hurricane. Big Deal.